Activism

#SuperTuesday Is Upon Us: Gird Thine Loins

Like it or not, election season is upon us (although it feels like it has been dragging on for a thousand bleak years at this point). Today is Super Tuesday, which means there are primaries and caucuses taking place across the country. Your friends at Skepchick are here to hold your hand through this trying time… but you’ve got to bring your own wine – we’re working on blogger’s salaries over here. We’ll be posting results throughout the evening as they’re announced, but in the interim, here’s a quick Q&A to catch you up on what we’re in for:

What is Super Tuesday? 

Super Tuesday is more of an informal idea than a set day. It refers to one or more Tuesdays during an election year in which a large number of states hold primaries and caucuses. Good performance during Super Tuesday is widely considered a must if a candidate wants to get their party’s nomination.

So there are primaries AND caucuses today? 

Yep. 14, to be precise:

  1. Alabama (Primary) – Closing Time: 8 PM ET
  2. Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – Caucus Time: 12 AM ET
  3. American Samoa Democrats (Caucus)
  4. Arkansas (Primary) – Closing Time: 8:30 PM ET
  5. Colorado (Caucus) – Caucus Time: 9 PM ET
  6. Georgia (Primary) – Closing Time: 7 PM ET
  7. Massachusetts (Primary) – Closing Time: 8 PM ET
  8. Minnesota (Caucus) – Caucus Time: 9 PM ET
  9. Oklahoma (Primary) – Closing Time: 8 PM ET
  10. Tennessee (Primary) – Closing Time: 8 PM ET
  11. Texas (Primary) – Closing Time: 9 PM ET
  12. Vermont (Primary) – Closing Time: 7 PM ET
  13. Virginia (Primary) – Closing Time: 7 PM ET
  14. Wyoming (Caucus) – Caucus times varying by county/precinct

What’s at stake? 

Nearly 600 delegates for the Republicans, and almost 900 delegates for the Democrats. That’s about one-half of the delegates Republican candidates need to win their nomination (1,237 total are needed) and one-third of what a Democratic candidate needs (Democrats need 2,382 to seal the deal).

With Trump turning out to be the near-sure bet for the Republican nomination, Cruz needs to turn out hard in his home state of Texas (among others) in order to have a fighting chance. Texas is the biggest prize today, with 155 Republican delegates at stake, and 252 for the Dems. Rubio’s best shot might be Minnesota, a state with similar voting tendencies to Iowa. Rubio barely eked out a third-place spot in Iowa, but it’s been one of his better performances thus far.

On the Democratic side, even the best scenarios for Sanders point to Clinton coming out on top with overall pledged delegates when the day is over. NPR’s best-case predictions for Sanders indicate that they’d essentially tie in pledged delegates won on Super Tuesday – which would leave Sanders with 498 delegates to Clinton’s 522. Their worst-case scenario for Sanders would leave Clinton with 598 delegates to his 422. Again, none of this is accounting for superdelegates, where Hillary currently has a near-monopoly. In both of the situations NPR outlines, the candidates will still come out close enough to ensure the race drags on a while longer:

Hillary Clinton now has a 92 pledged delegates to 65 for Sanders—out of 2,383 needed to win. (She’s way ahead on superdelegates, but if Sanders wins enough primaries to close the gap, those superdelegates will have to respect that momentum or risk destroying the party.) South Carolina is not the end of the Democratic contest. Not with 17 states voting in the next two weeks.  It isn’t even the beginning of the end, with crucial battleground states like Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio voting later on in March. It is just the end of the beginning.

Wait a minute. What’s the difference between a caucus and a primary again? 

Primaries are pretty easy, depending on how jacked up your state’s voter ID laws are (make sure to check before you go). Go to your polling place, indicate which party you’ll be casting your ballot for, vote privately (basically the same way you would during the general election), and get the hell out of Dodge before someone outside the polling place tries to talk to you.

Caucuses are far more confusing & time-consuming affairs, as they usually involve speeches, discussing the candidate and their policies, and sometimes state election business. Voters don’t line up for the traditional voting booth like they do in a primary, and caucus structure typically varies based on party and state. It’s a bit of a clusterfuck (see: Nevada).

Why is this all so complicated? 

Because democracy is a sham?

We’ll update this post throughout the evening as results and important updates roll in!

7:55 ET (3/2) Update

Alex here again! Here are the updates that came in overnight:

  • American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
  • Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Vermont (Primary) – Trump/Sanders
  • Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
  • Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
  • Colorado Democrats (Caucus) -Sanders
  • Minnesota (Caucus) – Rubio/Sanders
  • Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – Cruz
  • Wyoming Republicans (Caucus) – Won’t be announced until the Republican state convention

Thus far, Clinton has taken 453 of the Super Tuesday delegates, and Sanders took 284. That means are still 126 delegates up for the taking as counties and precincts continue reporting. Superdelegates aside, that puts Clinton at 544 pledged delgates, and Sanders at 349.

Unlike the Democrats, Republicans don’t have superdelegates, so it’s easy to quickly get a clear picture of their race. Unsurprisingly, Trump is still a strong front-runner:

Screen Shot 2016-03-02 at 7.48.45 AM

Here’s the overall picture this morning when you account for superdelegates on the Democratic side:

Screen Shot 2016-03-02 at 7.46.58 AM

It’s important to note that superdelegates have never decided an election. If Bernie ended up winning the majority of the popular vote, it’s likely that the superdelegates would follow that lead. Then again, this election is absolutely unlike any in the past – so we will see!

11:55 ET Update:

After the brief excitement of Google and the NY Times calling MA for Sanders before changing their mind to Clinton, I’m pretty exhausted. Here’s a video of a crowd of white male Trump supporters pushing around a lone black woman as cops and other people look on and do nothing:

On Real Housewives, Aviva just got angry and threw her fake leg on a Le Cirque table. It was great.

11:41 ET Update:

Well now the NY Times says that Massachusetts went to Clinton. So I’m a little sad but happy that the Bernie Bro is sad.

American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/CLINTON??
Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
Colorado Democrats (Caucus) -Sanders
Minnesota (Caucus) – Rubio/Sanders
Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – ???
Wyoming (Caucus) – ???/???

11:36 ET Update:

HOLY CRAP Bernie won Massachusetts when I was busy watching NASA videos. I find this actually surprising and a little exciting, though I’m disappointed that that Bernie Bro (see previous update) isn’t disappointed.

American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/Sanders
Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
Colorado Democrats (Caucus) -Sanders
Minnesota (Caucus) – Rubio/Sanders
Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – ???
Wyoming (Caucus) – ???/???

11:33 ET Update:

This is done now. Nothing to do with #SuperTuesday, except for that once Trump is president we will no longer explore space because he’ll demand all rockets be plated in gold.

11:25 ET Update:

Every time I check another of these “???” off I feel like I’ve accomplished something, even though all I did was look at a browser tab at approximately the right moment.

American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/???
Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
Colorado Democrats (Caucus) -Sanders
Minnesota (Caucus) – Rubio/Sanders
Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – ???
Wyoming (Caucus) – ???/???

11:22 ET Update:

Rubio won Minnesota. Who cares?

American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/???
Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
Colorado Democrats (Caucus) -Sanders
Minnesota (Caucus) – Rubio/???
Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – ???
Wyoming (Caucus) – ???/???

11:17 ET Update:

Chris Addison just made the perfect science/politics joke.

11:13 ET Update:

Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 3 points in Massachusetts, so you know what time it is: hating a woman time. No, not that woman. This one:

11:09 ET Update:

I’ve updated the list with MSNBC calling Colorado for Bernie, but also I want you to know that I just found out that Countess Luann broke up with Jacques and now I’m wondering if true love even exists?

American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/???
Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
Colorado Democrats (Caucus) –Sanders
Minnesota (Caucus) – ???/???
Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – ???
Wyoming (Caucus) – ???/???

11:06 ET Update:

11:03 ET Update:

This is also happening.

11:00 ET Update:

Ok, here’s where we are as far as I (Rebecca) can tell (new stuff bolded):

American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/???
Oklahoma (Primary) – Cruz/Sanders
Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Arkansas (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
Texas (Primary) – Cruz/Clinton
Colorado Democrats (Caucus) -???
Minnesota (Caucus) – ???/???
Alaska Republicans (Caucus) – ???
Wyoming (Caucus) – ???/???

Alex told me to just Google them and I’d see the current results. That was true about everything except for Wyoming. Google doesn’t give a single hot shit about Wyoming.

10:58 ET Update:

10:52 ET Update:

Plus check out  from CNN in which a Trump supporter defending the KKK.

10:46 ET Update:

Alex has gone to bed, and now Rebecca has taken her place. Rebecca is very politically opinionated but has had it up to here with this election. She’s making these updates while watching Real Housewives of New York, to emphasize and focus her hatred of humanity.

10:15 ET Update:

Clinton’s margins among black voters are still incredibly high tonight:

10:00 ET Update:

This tweet made me laugh out loud, even though it assumes Christie has any inkling of a moral compass.

9:55 ET Update: 

It’s still looking possible that all four Republican candidates could win a state tonight, but Trump’s likelihood of taking the nomination is still over 80% (according to PredictWise). Even though the nomination is still up in the air, here’s a glimpse into the potential Trumpian future:

9:45 ET Update: 

This quote from the FiveThirtyEight podcast really sums up why this race is incredibly predictable. We’ve absolutely never seen a race like this before:

Every 40 years, you get a new set of rules. But maybe Trump’s even rarer than that. Maybe it’s kind of a “once every 200 year” phenomenon.

The Donald Trump thing is so momentous and so unusual. All bets are off, but … you almost have to say “the sky is orange” and things are changing, and they’re weird, and this is extremely consequential. You can’t go back [in the general] and say, “We’ll go back and pretend that never happened, and now we’ll just pretend that Donald Trump is Mitt Romney all over again and all the old rules apply.” Some of them will, some of them won’t, but you at least have to think about that.

9:35 ET Update: 

Results are still out in the following primary races:

  • Vermont Republicans
  • Massachusetts Dems
  • Arkansas Republicans

Apart from those races, the rest of the evening will be focused on the caucus states:

  • Alaska Republicans
  • Colorado Democrats (Colorado’s Republican caucus is also tonight, but they don’t pledge delegates until the national convention in July)
  • Minnesota Democrats & Republicans
  • Wyoming Democrats & Republicans

9:15 ET Update: 

Oklahoma was just called for Cruz & Sanders, which is the second win tonight for both of them.

9:10 ET Update:

To recap, here’s where we are in states where polls/caucuses have closed:

  • American Samoa Democrats (Caucus) – Clinton
  • Georgia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Vermont (Primary) – ???/Sanders
  • Virginia (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Alabama (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Massachusetts (Primary) – Trump/???
  • Oklahoma (Primary) – ???/???
  • Tennessee (Primary) – Trump/Clinton
  • Arkansas (Primary) – ???/Clinton
  • Texas (Primary) –  Cruz/Clinton

9:05 ET Update:

Ted Cruz picks up his first win for the evening, in Texas. The Lone Star state is also being called for Clinton. Texas was the biggest prize of the night. A Cruz loss in his home state would have signaled a near-inevitable shuttering of his campaign, but it looks like the creepy Barbie villian lives to breathe another day.

9:00 ET Update: 

Caucuses are starting in Colorado & Minnesota now, and polls are closed in Texas.

8:55 ET Update: 

AP has now called Virginia for Trump:

Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 7.55.47 PM

Rubio’s best hope to win a state tonight now looks to be the Minnesota caucus.

8:45 ET Update:

The race is still extremely close in Virginia between Trump & Rubio, and while Fox News is handing it to Trump, other outlets like NBC are saying it’s too close to call. As FiveThirtyEight points out:

Rubio has made the result closer there than pre-election polls projected but trails Trump by about 5 percentage points with most of the vote counted. Still, most of the remaining vote is in Rubio-friendly Northern Virginia. It’s worth remembering, however, that Virginia’s delegate allocation is highly proportional, so winning the state matters a lot more for the media narrative than for the delegate math.

8:40 ET Update:

Clinton wins the Dems in Arkansas! Next up at 9:00, caucuses begin in Colorado & Minnesota, and primary polls close in Texas.

8:35 ET Update:

Okay, we snorted:

8:30 ET Update: 

Arkansas just closed! Trump & Clinton are favored, and we’ll see what happens as soon as the exit polls start coming out.

8:20 ET Update:

We’ve got some results!

Alabama: Trump/Clinton have been declared the winners

Massachusetts: Trump has been called for the Republicans. Sanders has a wide lead early on, but no official call yet.

Oklahoma: Both parties are too close to call.

Tennessee: Trump/Clinton have been declared the winners.

8:10 ET Update:

Exit polls are indicating some possible upsets in Oklahoma and Massachusetts:

Oklahoma: While pre-election data showed Trump taking the Panhandle State, Cruz is actually pulling ahead in his home state’s northern neighbor.

Massachusetts: Clinton was favored in MA, but exit polls are tending toward Sanders early on.

It’s important to note that it’s very early in both states, so there are no celebrations taking place for any of the candidates just yet.

8:00 ET Update: 

As predicted, Rubio is closing the gap in Virginia, as more precincts start reporting. As of writing, AP has Trump less than 5 points ahead of Rubio.

Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 7.02.08 PM

More results coming in soon, as Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Tennessee close down their polling locations!

7:55 ET Update: 

ABC News has called American Samoa for Clinton. American Samoa is an interesting case: they have a say in primary season, but don’t get to vote in the general. Clinton also won American Samoa in ’08, when there was record voter turnout: 285 voters. If the numbers on ABC News are final, turnout was slightly lower this year at only 223 voters.

7:45 ET Update: 

Wise words from David Wasserman over at FiveThirtyEight:

Be cautious of Trump’s 39 percent to 29 percent lead over Rubio in Virginia so far. Most of that is from the western part of the state; there are not a lot of votes in from Rubio-friendly Northern Virginia yet.

 The Republican races are turning out to be much less clear-cut than the Democratic ones this evening, with the only declaration (so far) being Trump in Georgia.

7:35 ET Update: 

Bernie Sanders just won the “obvious statement of the night” award at his Vermont speech, stating, “We wanna win in every part of the country.”

7:30 ET Update: 

Bernie is taking the stage in Vermont, where he is the projected winner, to speak to supporters. Check it out on CNN.

7:25 ET Update:

FiveThirtyEight is reporting Kasich pulling ahead of Trump in Vermont exit polls. If Kasich gets a state before Rubio, does this mean hell froze over?

7:20 ET Update: 

Multiple outlets are reporting a Trump win in Georgia on the Republican side, while the Republican races in Vermont and Virginia are still looking too close to call thus far.

Additionally, it appears the South Carolina demographic trends are continuing in the Sanders/Clinton race, according to MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki:

While we wait for official results, here’s a depressing article about Texas.

7:05 ET Update: 

ABC News has made the following calls:

Georgia: Hillary Clinton

Vermont: Bernie Sanders

Virginia: Hillary Clinton

7:00 ET Update:

Fuck Minions.

 

 

6:50 ET Update: 

Can we take a brief Super Tuesday break, and just revel in how great Melissa Harris-Perry is?

6:45 ET Update: 

Solid results could start rolling in here in the next 15 minutes or so, as Georgia, Vermont & Virginia polls close. Here’s an excellent Poll Tracker to keep you occupied in the meantime.

 

 

 

Courtney Caldwell

Courtney Caldwell

Courtney Caldwell is an intersectional feminist. Her talents include sweary rants, and clogging your social media with pictures of her dogs (and occasionally her begrudging cat). She's also a political nerd, whose far-left tendencies are a little out of place in the deep red Texas.

Previous post

Announcing the March SkepchickCon Drawing

Next post

Quickies: Ancient Dentistry, the Economics of Star Trek, and the Effect of Space Travel on the Human Body

No Comment

Leave a reply